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Preview: Wales v New Zealand

Friday 21st November 2008

Andy Powell: Up against the world number one this time

Here we go again. After a year's break, which ironically saw New Zealand beaten in Cardiff for the first time since that mythical day in 1953, the two most rugby religious countries in the world renew acquaintances.

Matches against the All Blacks are benchmark games for the Welsh. They always run the other two of the Tri-Nations close, but any kind of threat to New Zealand seems to evaporate during the haka. This will be the second time in four years they have faced the All Blacks as Grand Slam champions. The last time, they got stuffed 41-3. No matter what the Welsh rugby climate, the sight of a black shirt seems to scare the Welsh more than a conservative MP.

In 2003 and 2004, the Welsh did make a game of it. They lost 26-25 in 2004 because of a bizarre mix-up involving the stadium clock which resulted in Stephen Jones kicking a goalable late penalty to touch to end the game. In the 2003 World Cup, Wales led 37-33 in Sydney in a magnificent match before a missed forward pass cost them a try and their momentum.

But, unlike most things rugby and Welsh, you actually have to go back beyond the 70s to find the last time Wales won this fixture. Even the great team of Edwards, JPR, Merv the swerve, Phil Bennett et al was unable to blanche the blacks (we'll leave the Haden dive of 1978 out of this). What would make the class of 2008 any different?

Not much really. We might have said different if the Welsh had finished off the ailing Springboks, but it seems the mental hold the south has on the champions of the north is not loosening. New Zealand were fantastic in Ireland last week, tight in all facets of play and lethal when given the chance. The Welsh don't thrive in that sort of environment.

As always with these two teams, the battle will be won and lost in the loose trio and the half-backs. New Zealand hold the edge in both.

Ryan Jones will lead Wales from blindside, but the Welsh captain seems to have the weight of the world upon his shoulders at the moment. He's been under considerable strain at the up-and-down Ospreys, where he is probably assisting the caretaker coach far more than a captain would normally have to, and he's now having to cope with retaining the national captaincy despite being shunted out of his preferred position by the emergence of Andy Powell. He had a terrible time trying to up the team against Canada.

Martyn Williams is also struggling to hit the heights of last season, and while Andy Powell is doing all sorts of good things at number eight he will be on a new learning curve against a more technical opponent than he had a fortnight ago against the Boks.

On the other side is the established core of the All Black side. Richie McCaw and Rodney So'oialo are both leader and consistency personified, leaving Jerome Kaino to develop his role at his own pace. The longer Kaino stays in the number six shirt, the more Jerry Collins becomes fond memory rather than existing void in the team.

At half-back, Wales also seem to have a problem. Dwayne Peel appears to have lost some of the zip that made him so dangerous a couple of years ago, and Gareth Cooper struggles to get regular game-time at Gloucester. Opposite them you have the choice of the snapping mongrel of Jimmy Cowan, or the physical threat of Piri Weepu. Then at fly-half you have Stephen Jones against Dan Carter: on one side a solid distributor and kicker prone to off-days and short on international pace, on the other... Dan Carter.

Otherwise, the teams are evenly-matched and there are some tantalising head to heads in the outside backs to look forward to. Richard Kahui is to Tom Shanklin what Shane Williams is to Joe Rokocoko: one blessed with inspiration and a piscine ability to change direction, the other a bull heading for the target. Watching Leigh Halfpenny's youthful effervescence deal with the moody assassin of Sitiveni Sivivatu will be fun as well.

The tight fives both go quietly about their business most of the time, although the extra yardage offered by Ali Williams and Brad Thorn in the loose is something for the Welsh to worry about.

New Zealand's personnel has changed, but the team hasn't. It plays the all-round game that the Welsh just can't cope with, and hasn't been able to since 1953.

Ones to watch:

For Wales: Leigh Halfpenny. These two teams know each other pretty well, but Halfpenny - and Andy Powell in the pack - are the jacks in the Welsh box to give the All Blacks a surprise.

For New Zealand: Daniel Carter has one last chance to prove that he is fit to be named IRB Player of the Year for the third time. Having steered the ship flawlessly once again against Ireland, Carter might relish the more open game likely against the Welsh.

Head to head: Andy Powell and Rodney So'oialo. A comparative novice comes up against international rugby's most experienced current first-choice number eight. What Powell brings in enthusiasm and power, So'oialo counters with a vast array of technical skills. Two contrasting styles at number eight in a fascinating clash.

Recent results:

2006 New Zealand won 45-10 at Millennium Stadium
2005 New Zealand won 41-3 at Millennium Stadium
2004 New Zealand won 26-25 at Millennium Stadium
2003 New Zealand won 53-37 in Sydney (RWC)
2003 New Zealand won 55-3 at Waikato Stadium
2002 New Zealand won 43-17 at Millennium Stadium
1997 New Zealand won 42-7 at Wembley
1995 New Zealand won 34-9 at Ellis Park (RWC)
1989 New Zealand won 34-9 at The National Stadium
1988 New Zealand won 54-9 at Eden Park
1988 New Zealand won 52-3 at Jade Stadium
1987 New Zealand won 49-6 at Ballymore (RWC)
etc
etc
etc
1953 Wales won 13-8 at The National Stadium

Prediction: The Welsh will be clinging on to 1953 for a little longer yet. New Zealand by ten.

The teams:

Wales: 15 Lee Byrne, 14 Leigh Halfpenny, 13 Tom Shanklin, 12 Jamie Roberts, 11 Shane Williams, 10 Stephen Jones, 9 Gareth Cooper, 8 Andy Powell, 7 Martyn Williams, 6 Ryan Jones (c), 5 Ian Evans, 4 Alun-Wyn Jones, 3 Adam Jones, 2 Matthew Rees, 1 Gethin Jenkins.
Replacements: 16 Richard Hibbard, 17 John Yapp, 18 Luke Charteris, 19 Dafydd Jones, 20 Dwayne Peel, 21 James Hook/Dan Biggar, 22 Andrew Bishop.

New Zealand: 15 Mils Muliaina, 14 Joe Rokocoko, 13 Richard Kahui, 12 Ma'a Nonu, 11 Sitiveni Sivivatu, 10 Daniel Carter, 9 Jimmy Cowan, 8 Rodney So'oialo, 7 Richie McCaw (c), 6 Jerome Kaino, 5 Ali Williams, 4 Brad Thorn, 3 Tony Woodcock, 2 Keven Mealamu, 1 Neemia Tialata.
Replacements: 16 Hikawera Elliot, 17 John Afoa, 18 Anthony Boric, 19 Kieran Read, 20 Piri Weepu, 21 Stephen Donald, 22 Isaia Toeava.

Date: Saturday 22 November, 2008
Kick-off: 17:15 GMT
Venue: Millennium Stadium
Weather: The predicted heavy showers of frogs will make quite a racket on the closed stadium roof
Referee: Jonathan Kaplan (South Africa)
Touch judges: Dave Pearson (England) , Cobus Wessels (South Africa)
Television match official: Shaun Veldsman (South Africa)
Assessor: Paul Bridgman (England)

By Danny Stephens